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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater change with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.