Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.